If Donald Trump and Kamala Harris follow through on their promises, the risk of a financial crisis in the U.S. could increase, according to an independent think tank.
A new report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget claims that the campaign promises made by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could worsen the U.S. financial crisis. Harris' plans could increase the national debt by $3.5 trillion by 2035, while Trump's promises could add $7.5 trillion. The rising debt levels threaten economic growth, national security, and political flexibility, according to the think tank.
Debt Crisis Looms
Neither presidential candidate has presented a clear plan to address the U.S.'s massive national debt, which currently exceeds $35 trillion. As of October 7, 2024, the U.S. national debt stood at $35,682,617,798,771.80, according to recent figures from the U.S. Treasury Department.
The non-partisan think tank, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), has calculated the impact of Harris' and Trump's campaign promises on the national debt.
Trump: Twice as Expensive
Vice President Kamala Harris has promised tax cuts for middle- and low-income individuals, increased border control, more funding for housing and healthcare services, and tax cuts on tips. According to CRFB's estimates, her pledges would add $3.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, through fiscal year 2035. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has pledged to extend and expand tax cuts, lower corporate tax rates to 15%, strengthen border security, and allocate more funding to the military, among other promises. According to CRFB's mid-range estimates, Trump's promises would increase the national debt by $7.5 trillion in the same period.
These scenarios would result in interest costs of $500 billion under Harris’ plan, while Trump’s promises could lead to $1 trillion in interest costs.
The record-high debt levels increase the risk of a new financial crisis and could slow economic growth, raise costs and interest payments, weaken national security, and limit political flexibility, according to the think tank. At the same time, there is significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. This is partly because not all the details of Harris' and Trump's proposals have been fully clarified. The CRFB has based its estimates on speeches, budget proposals, and other available sources.
In the highest estimate, Harris' policies are expected to add $8.1 trillion to the U.S. debt burden, while Trump's proposals could expand it by an additional $15.15 trillion.
In the most conservative scenario, the CRFB estimates that Harris' economic policies would result in a net-zero change to the debt, while Trump's would increase the debt by $1.45 trillion.